Report projects Nigeria’s GDP to grow at 4.4 per cent this year

A financial and professional services sector group, EnterpriseNGR, said Nigeria’s economy is poised to strengthen in 2026 with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth projected at 4.4 per cent, up from 3.98 per cent in 2025.

The projection is contained in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, launched in Lagos yesterday. The comprehensive report, developed in partnership with EY-Parthenon, said Nigeria has reached a critical post-adjustment inflexion point, with key indicators suggesting strong foundations for economic stability.

Chief Executive Officer of EnterpriseNGR, Obi Ibekwe, in her keynote, said: “For the first time in a while, key macroeconomic indices are beginning to align. Inflation, external reserves, and real GDP growth are all moving in the right direction.”

Presenting the outlook, Head of Research at EnterpriseNGR, Omotayo Muritala, highlighted significant improvement across major economic indicators.

Inflation moderated sharply to 15.15 per cent by December 2025, down from the 34.8 per cent in 2024, reflecting tight monetary policy and improved foreign exchange (FX) stability.

The report projected inflation to rise moderately to 16.5 per cent in 2026, driven by pre-election fiscal pressure and persistent structural challenges, particularly in agriculture, where security issues continue disrupting food supply chains.

However, improved FX stability and easing supply pressures are expected to provide counterbalancing forces, it said. External reserves, which climbed to $45.5 billion in December 2025—the highest in nearly seven years—are forecast to reach $51.04 billion by the end of 2026, providing over 10 months of import cover.

The improvement reflects FX market reforms that increased turnover by over 56 per cent year-on-year and narrowed the gap between official and parallel market rates from around 63 per cent in 2023 to between 0.7 per cent and 3.8 per cent in 2025. 

Nigeria’s public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline to 34.68 per cent in 2026 from 39.8 per cent in 2025, despite debt servicing consuming 44 per cent of revenue.

The improvement reflects the impact of GDP rebasing and strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals, though elevated debt service costs continue to constrain growth-enhancing expenditure, the report said.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Rate is projected to remain at 27 per cent throughout this year as authorities maintain a cautious stance to anchor inflation expectations, though gradual easing may occur if disinflation proves sustainable.

Crude oil production is forecast to average 1.5 million barrels per day, with Brent prices projected at around $61 per barrel. The outlook assumes continued security improvements in oil-producing regions and operational gains from the ramp-up of the Dangote Refinery, which is significantly reducing refined petroleum imports.

Non-oil sectors, now accounting for over 96 per cent of GDP, remain the primary growth drivers, led by services, telecommunications, financial intermediation and trade, the report recalled.

Associate Partner at EY-Parthenon, Olayinka Oyetunji, emphasized that reform-led stability creates opportunities for longer-term capital deployment.

“From our experience advising both domestic and international investors, reform-led stability creates space for longer-term capital,” she stated.